Oscar predictions and favorites

Here it is, just a few hours behind schedule: my list of predictions and favorites. Explanations will follow in separate entries in about six or seven hours, i.e. after I wake up. Do feel encouraged to post your own predictions in the comments thread.

Tale of the Tape
24 Oscar categories
113 nominations
58 films nominated
I have seen 17 nominated films accounting for 48 nominations.
I did not see any of the animated features, animated shorts, documentary shorts, or live action shorts.

See the first comment for the complete list of all 26 first-run features for 2006 that I've seen.

BEST PICTURE
best picture: The Lives of Others (not nominated)
best nominated: The Queen
(would not mind: The Departed)
PREDICTION: Babel

DIRECTOR
best director: Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, The Lives of Others (not nominated)
best nominated: Martin Scorsese
(would not mind: Stephen Frears)
(should have been nominated: Pedro Almodóvar)
PREDICTION: Martin Scorsese

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
best actor: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland; and Ulrich Mühe, The Lives of Others (not nominated)
PREDICTION: Forest Whitaker

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
best actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen
(would not mind: Penelope Cruz)
(should have been nominated: Ivana Baquero, Pan's Labyrinth)
PREDICTION: Helen Mirren

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
best supporting actor: Michael Sheen, The Queen (not nominated)
best nominated: Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
PREDICTION: Mark Wahlberg

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
best supporting actress: Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
PREDICTION: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
best screenplay: Peter Morgan, The Queen; and Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, The Lives of Others (not nominated)
PREDICTION: Peter Morgan, The Queen

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
best adapted screenplay: William Monahan, The Departed
(should have been nominated: Frank Cottrell Boyce, Tristram Shandy)
PREDICTION: William Monahan, The Departed

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
best foreign-language film: Das Leben der Anderen (The Lives of Others)
PREDICTION: Pan's Labyrinth

ART DIRECTION
best art direction: Eugenio Caballero and Pilar Revuelta, Pan's Labyrinth
PREDICTION: Pan's Labyrinth

CINEMATOGRAPHY
best cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, Children of Men
(would not mind: Guillermo Navarro, Pan's Labyrinth)
PREDICTION: Children of Men

FILM EDITING
best editing: Clare Douglas, Christopher Rouse, and Richard Pearson, United 93
PREDICTION: Thelma Schoonmaker, The Departed

ANIMATED FEATURE
PREDICTION: Happy Feet

ORIGINAL SCORE
PREDICTION: Alexandre Desplat, The Queen

ORIGINAL SONG
PREDICTION: 'Our Town' by Randy Newman (music and lyrics), from Cars

COSTUME DESIGN
best costume design: Milena Canonero, Marie Antoinette
PREDICTION: Marie Antoinette
[I may revise this one after watching The Devil Wears Prada on dvd later today.]

MAKEUP
PREDICTION: David Marti and Montse Ribe, Pan's Labyrinth

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
PREDICTION: An Inconvenient Truth, Davis Guggenheim

SOUND MIXING
PREDICTION: Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer, and Willie Burton, Dreamgirls
Note: this film had the worst sound mixing of the year, but that's my prediction.

SOUND EDITING
PREDICTION: Alan Robert Murray, Letters from Iwo Jima

VISUAL EFFECTS
PREDICTION: John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and Allen Hall, 'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest'

SHORT FILM - ANIMATED
PREDICTION: The Danish Poet, Torill Kove

SHORT FILM - LIVE ACTION
PREDICTION: West Bank Story, Ari Sandel

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
PREDICTION: The Blood of Yingzhou District, Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon